Anyone buy trade stocks?

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by Garthilk, Aug 27, 2011.

  1. PaleOne Tan IRL

    <<Ex StockBroker and investment counselor.
    <<Top of my college finance courses where I had to manage a $500,000 portfolio for a grade.
    <<Doesn't own a single US Equity position right now.

    But I have more than doubled my money over the last year...:)

    I wouldn't put money into any US company unless you were an insider and had full financial understanding of the inner workings of that particular company.

    Currently the primary risk is in any dollar denominated assets and anything that depends on oil or imported components/products.

    The US governemnt stopped publishing figures on the total money supply for a reason. QE1 and 2 and continued purchase of US financial intruments by the fed has resulted in an unprecedented increase in the money supply. Most of that cash has been sitting in banks because of the Fed's policy of paying interest on reserves. As that money flows into the economy we wil see signifigant increases in prices, a weaker dollar, higher oil prices and an even greater depression than we are in now :)

    Put those stop loss orders in boys, protect yourself:)
     
  2. Tabaal Lord

    This.

    Btw, a way to minimize that risk, if you do buy stocks that are influenced negatively by the decline in the dollar - you can do a currency swap, where you "borrow USD, and pay the USD interest rate - and use those USD to buy another currency, where you gain that currencys interest rate" - if the USD falls comparative to the currency you buy, then you gain money - and no matter what, you gain the interest difference.
     
  3. Sorcon Banned

    I'm liiving off my investments. Any stock is a gamble. You never know. I buy in companies I believe in and ride out the ups and downs, they eventually go up in the long run. Even the so callled experts are wrong all the time.

    Real Estate is looking good right now, its way down in many markets and so are interest rates if you can get a loan. It has to go up I'd speculate.

    My best advice would be "don't be stupid, you morons."

    P.S. - I play a Chief Financial Officer in RL.
     
  4. PaleOne Tan IRL

    Sounds like your advice in game....:)
     
  5. Sorcon Banned

    Yeah, its the best advice and applies to both gaming and investments.
     
  6. Gaunsaku Chill Dude

    So Garth, wish you didn't invest anything yet? Past few trading sessions must be stressful for a new trader ;)
     
  7. Cedwyn Banned

    Explains A LOT! "Sauron" indeed :)
     
  8. Garthilk General Badass

    Well,

    It's been interesting. Scared my wife pretty much though into wanting to pull everything out. My three buys were BAC, C, and RTN.

    I'm out about 500$ out of 10k, not by much. I should have sold when I was $600 ahead and then cashed out and waited for this next fall.

    Right now I think my positions are still pretty strong long. I've still got 2k waiting to jump into something interesting. Another hard week this last one and I might jump in with 2k more.

    Any new invester is going to make mistakes. My first mistake was buying a volitile stock on an upward trend. I knew BAC was a good buy at 6.30, but I somehow convinced myself it was still good at 8.

    Same with Citigroup. I knew it was a good stock at 27.40, but stupid to think it was still a good stock at 30.

    RTN was more of a long term stock, decent earnings, dividend is nice. It's not something I'm speculating to buy or sell in the near term.

    I think my investing style is going to be focus on weekly gains. Selling when profits hit 100-200$ in a week. Focusing on picking stocks and selling off their rebounds. Small gains add up. Rather than waiting even larger gains.
     
  9. Garthilk General Badass

    Well,

    I held onto my BAC, C, RTN, and they're up 30% from my last post. So it guess it worked out. The question is now, how to find the next stock to jump 30-50% in a few months.
     
  10. Gaunsaku Chill Dude

    If you had bought Apple, it was around 360 in sept. It's at 605 today.

    Glad I listen to my own advice :D
     
  11. Perseus Warlord

    I bought apple in the early 90s lol I am as giddy as a school girl named Gaun.
     
  12. Anwedie Lord

    I've got 400k liquid and have been looking for another place to enter since November '11. I've been trying to determine a place to short AAPL(I got in years ago and sold out in the 400s, who woulda thought that this many "poor people" in the world would be able to afford iPhones). Shorting Apple is made doubly difficult by the dollar being worth jack and shit. People have fled bonds for the market(which is what the fed wanted), however they are going to have to raise the rates before late 2014 and tech should fall back to earth(my opinion).

    Right now pharmaceuticals/financials(financials are going to have to stop going up soon the rates are 0%) are big for me with telecoms(shorted Frontier and their shitty Verizon landline purchase from 8 to 4.30) and utilities being out of season atm. Tech is still chugging along nicely, however earning season is about to hit so I'm sitting on the sidelines to see where our anemic economy is going.
     
  13. Daemon Lord

    Should have bought when Jobs died... you'd have doubled your money almost
     
  14. Gaunsaku Chill Dude

    You can buy me a house, Anwedie. I'll even put "Property of Anwedie" stickers all over it :D
     
  15. Perseus Warlord

    I got out of techs during the early 2000s when the bubble hit with the exception of apple. I rode the wave and glad I did. Tech stocks for the most part are unpredictable, for the longest military stocks were a great buy, but not so much now. Seems as if pharmaceutical stocks are in right now especially during allergy time.
     
  16. Anwedie Lord

    Apple computers were fail, so are their phones imo. Just a lot of hippies in the world. Android is a superior product.
     
  17. Gaunsaku Chill Dude

    Windows phone 7!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1111111111
     
  18. Garthilk General Badass

    With the market up so much it's hard to find a decent entry point into anything. I've got a small position in Pandora. But other than that I've been looking at Europeon telecomunications. Otherwise, I'm thinking that dividends are probably a safe bet. Your standard MCD, DIS, TWX, GE, PEP, but even those are inflated, finding an entry point seems difficult. It was easy picking a stock when the market was off in August or Sept, now's the hard part.
     
  19. Anwedie Lord

    Just remember, historically(and much so over the past 5 years) April is an up month for the market then everyone goes and hides until after summer(light volume). However also keep in mind that volume has been extremely light the last few months of this market rise and that there's still trillions of dollars on the sidelines waiting for the "next big thing".

    Making money in the market is not so much about picking what's the next hot thing, it's usually about picking common sense items. For example, when Iran started theatening the middle east, if you would have picked up any of the large oil companies(COP, XOM, even BP) you would have made 10% at least on your investment(in 2 months) and could cash out now that the fearmongering has died out(like I did, caching!).

    Here's something for you investors to watch:

    Check out the price of coal over the past 1 year on a chart(ticker symbol for coal etf, KOL). It is at a year low right now, due a lot to the economy(businesses shut down, people moved out of houses, no new houses being built, factories at half-capacity use less power due to bad economy, etc..). Now your plays on it are either find the best of breed coal stock inside the coal etf and use that or you can buy the coal etf directly. When will KOL recover? Simply when the economy picks up and more electricity is used.

    Here is a coal statistic for you: 42% of the 4 trillion killowatthours of electricity generated in the US in 2011 was done from using coal. That ties the price of coal in a 1:2 corollary with the price of electricity. Meaning for every 1 widget of more "electricity" is used, coal prices will raise at a rate of 1/2 a widget(whatever that may be .001 cents? That's your research to do).

    The point is as the economy gets better, coal consumption will increase thus the price of coal will increase and the profit of the electric generating companies will go slow as material price bites into their bottom line. This does NOT impact electric transmission companies, who just transmit electricity across wires and charge a tariff for it. They make money regardless of what kind of power is transmitted through their lines(coal, uranium, solar, wind).

    Total disclaimer:
    In short, I will be researching the 2 best of breed coal stocks and probably dumping $30k as usual into them(shortly) until first quarter 2013. I bought 4000 shares of PPL about 4 years ago and have it DRIPing until I retire, you can't beat a permanent 5% investment(everyone is always going to use electricity) and PPL's money is guaranteed by the people of Kentucky, Pennsylvania and the UK(75% of PPL is regulated, meaning when PPL invests into it's infrastructure(new breakers, substations, wires) that money is directly recovered 1:1 from the paying consumer and the state/governments). If you're looking for a stable investment for the next 30 years, I'd recommend it.

    Blue Horseshoe loves PPL and KOL
     
  20. Garthilk General Badass

    Since March my up 30% BAC, C, RTN are down to only up 9% on average with RTN carrying most of the weight.

    I've picked up a few mismash of shares while I try to figure out what kind of investor I am. Picked up some Spanish and Euro stocks. FTE, TEF and San. I'm in the green on all of them albiet barely.

    Also snagged some MCD, CSCO and have broken even on the two.

    I'm down 15% on P, but that's only 60 bucks out if I sell. At this point holding on to it for giggles.

    Overall portfolio is now positive 7.87 capital appreciation and doesn't count dividends.

    I've got money burning a hole in my pocket at this point and am leaning towards more MCD and averaging down.

    Overall, I'm finding that I want to be a dividend growth investor. But I'm a bit of a contrarian too. Dividend growth stocks, it's so hard to find decent entry points.
     

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